New Participant? - or not?

Mr. Paris DeBerry Bouchard has just transferred into the FTDNA Berry group from the Genographic Project with 12 markers.    At first blush he would appear to be a Madison Co. Berry, matching seven of them at a distance of one.    (He is also a distance of one from Keith, #54, an unassigned member.)    'At first blush' because, as we know, 12 marker matches are notoriously fickle.    In order for Paris to really be considered a Madison Co. Berry he'd have to continue that close match to 37 markers.

Maybe he will, maybe he won't.