Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Whada'ya think?

Houston, we have a problem.

Robert Leo Berry, #75, got his YDNA-37 results last night.   Robert's first markers were estimated to be here on Oct. 6 and the balance by Oct. 20.   So that's not the problem.

The problem is I can't tell if he's related to the Faires Berrys, color coded Fuscia, or not.   First, his haplogroup is predicted R1b1, as their's is.   Here's that family's markers, including Robert's:
Now here is their distance table:As you can see, this indicates that Paul, #36, and David, #59, are related; that Paul and Dennis, #31, are probably related; and that Paul and Robert are possibly related; that David and Robert are possibly related; and that David and Dennis are unrelated (probably too few markers); and that Dennis and Robert are unrelated.   Say what?!

Now here's their time to Most Recent Common Ancestor table based on a somewhat liberal 55% standard.   In other words, slightly more probable than not:
Only a couple of these seem to be within a genealogically significant timeframe, i.e., since the adoption of surnames!

Well, we always have our cladograms to fall back on to explain everything:
Oops!   Only three people compared and then at only 25 markers.   What's going on here?

Folks, we have here the extreme example of the need for more markers.   Maybe if everyone were at 37 markers we could tell that they were related or that they weren't.   Or, maybe it will take 67 markers.   The one thing that is certain is that we can't tell now.

Paul and David have a paper trail that says they're related.   If it is correct their match should hold up as David gets more results.   Dennis does not have a paper connection.   Nor does Robert.   Are they related?

And, if insult need be added to injury, as an illustration that I may have no idea what I'm talking about, FTDNA's 25 Marker Distance Analysis has Robert and Paul as a distance of 2, Dean McGee's distance table has Robert and Paul as a distance of 3, the cladogram indicates a distance of 4 and I count a distance of 4 comparing their markers!   I doubt a relationship but what do I know?

Remember, if any of you are thinking about upgrading you should do it before 5 P.M. Mountain Time today in order not to lose a week in the process!   Read 'FTDNA Upgrade timing (revisited)'.

Whada'ya think?


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