Thursday, June 14, 2007

The Singularity Is Near!

The Law of Accelerating Returns
by Ray Kurzweil

An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view.    So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century   --   it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).    The "returns," such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially.    There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth.    Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity   --   technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.    The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.

A long, but very interesting and worthwhile article which may be found here.
Actually, a 'must read'!


Anonymous Dane said...

Hmmmm...this may put a new twist on genealogy research. Let's see....what version software did you evolve from? Does you father have a Serial Number ending in 01 through 04? Very intersting.

4:03 PM  

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